Monday, February 11, 2008

Far From Any Upheaval


(11 February 2008 – Manila) – The Philippines is once again experiencing another political confrontation over an “affirmation” by a witness to the alleged fixing/brokering process of financing and building the government’s envisioned internet broadband backbone.

Last week, Philippine Forest Corporation (a government owned corporation) president Rodolf Noel “Jun” Lozada, Jr., dubbed as the newest star witness on the Natonal Broadband Network controversy was allegedly “abducted” at the airporrt upon returning from Hongkong, later surfacing in the custody and care of the religious, later to finally make statements before media and eventually testifying before the Blue Ribbon Committee of the Senate.

Mr. Lozada, who was previously employed by Alcatel was sought by then Economic Planning Secretary (now Commission on Higher Education head) Romulo Neri to assist in threshing out the highly technical issues involved in the government’s plans to build its own internet broadband backbone.

To cut the story short, Mr. Lozada implicated several key personalities of government for allegedly forging means to benefit from the project that was supposed to received a loan grant from the government of the People’s Republic of China.

The latest revelation and claim made by Lozada once again pinned possible involvement of First Gentleman Miguel Arroyo, resulting in a possible implication of President Gloria Arroyo to the scandal.

Early last week, the same issue also caused a divide between former political allies, the President and former House Speaker Jose de Venecia. The later was “ousted” by members of Congress who were being identified as loyalists to the President.

De Venecia, one of the former staunchest supporters of Mrs. Arroyo immediately issued statements hinting of Mrs. Arroyo’s “impropriety” in office as a reply to his claims that he was being booted out as a political vendetta resulting from the statements and claims made by his son Joey De Venecia who was bidding for the National Broadband Network project.

De Venecia’s son, Joey De Venecia made public late in 2007, bold and glaring allegations that the First Gentleman and former Commission of Elections Chairman Benjamin Abalos, Sr. were conducting activities to favor ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications equipment company to win the National Broadband Network project over Joey De Venecia’s Amsterdam Holdings.

The young De Venecia alleged that briberies and kickbacks were being thrown around people who were supposedly tasked to approve the financial and technical details of the project, which was partially confirmed by the testimony of Jun Lozada.

As the story continues to evolve with the endless plans to conduct countless number of hours of hearings at the Senate, certain sectors in Philippine society are once again at arms against Mrs. Arroyo and are calling for snap elections to remove the current administration.

As another scandal unfolds, tall tales of a possible political upheaval to the magnitude of another People Power is being peddled in coffee shops, in columns, in text messages and also being inferred by some sectors of the media as possibly happening.

Mrs. Arroyo’s government since being installed in 2001 has been marred by controversies and scandals that remain as ordinary discussions and have not been elevated to proper forums.

Scandals that have been allegedly “discovered” include possible mis-management of fertilizer funds, to the rigging of the 2004 Nationals elections, to secret bank accounts of the First Gentleman and more recently the internet broadband project.

Since 2005, after the reports that Mrs. Arroyo spoke to a Commissioner of the Commission on Elections during the days of the elections to “allegedly seek assurance” of her votes from Mindanao – the Arroyo government has been subject to attempts to be impeached before the House or Representatives – which has failed to materialize, or even reach the House committee level.

Some vocal and active groups, sectors of Philippine society has been quite active to have Mrs. Arroyo removed and some sectors include young members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines who attempted for about three times to call for arms and defy Mrs. Arroyo until she finally decides to step down.


Will there be another People Power? – most probably not!

Conditions are not ripe to have the cauldron of political upheaval to boil to cause another People Power.

Jun Lozadas testimony, dubbed by some sectors as the “most credible” statement to give further truth to the corruption allegedly being done by this administration, is not enough to spark an upheaval.

The key element of the People Power Revolutions of 1986 and 2001 are the middle class of urban Metro Manila who took 20 years to awaken in order to face down former President Ferdinand Marcos and in 2001, to put an end to President Joseph Estrada’s term.

The middle class of this country are apparently fatigued by this process and is perhaps more interested in reaping personal economic and social advances than engage in the almost daily political bickering.

There were two clear conditions that brought the middle class to the streets in both during the Marcos and Estrada upheavals – absolute dissatisfaction over the administration of that time and unfavorable economy conditions.

In both Marcos and Estrada, the scandals and abuses pushed the middle class to reconsider and take up action coupled by sliding economic conditions of that time.

In the current administration, despite the scandals that has become a usual headline and topic, the economic situation remains ideal and favorable to the middle class and partially benefitting other sectors of society.

However, despite the phenomenal growth rate of the country, dollar surplus in the country’s reserves and the strong currency against the U.S. dollar, the economic successes are still barely causing benefit to the low income classes.

In May 1, 2001, the low income classes or the masses who is the country’s, who also supported Estrada whom they considered coming from their own ranks, attempted to re-install Estrada in their self-proclaimed version of People Power but the effort failed, lacking the presence and support of the middle class, the intellectuals and by the wealthy families of the country who at that time accepted having Mrs. Arroyo finish the remaining term of Estrada.

There is an creepy silence coming from most of the middle class since the start of the movement to have Mrs. Arroyo removed from office, accounting to facts that there are no suitable replacements if she was indeed removed – most especially coming from the ranks of current political, military, religious, civil society leaders.

With all the scandals and allegations being thrown at this current administration – the inability to make the accusations stick by providing hard documented proof or presenting credible witnesses who wont retract their statements or disappear makes these charges against Arroyo nothing more than dirty politics or works of hired spin doctors.

Unknown to the people who have been vocal in calling for Mrs. Arroyo’s removal, their actions and public tirades are often being viewed now as comedic, rants of people who are ambitiously hungry for attention and power, and worst lacking the moral authority to inspire the nation for another radical change.

There are no Cory Aquinos or Jaime Cardinal Sin of the Roman Catholic Church to give the credible fuse for change, but instead the public see wannabe leaders of change staging efforts to defy Mrs. Arroyo at business centers or at the comfort of posh hotels, or people whose only motivation is to disrupt the status quo.

Political leaders at the legislative branch have not even demonstrated their leadership qualities to inspire the nation to follow a radical change. These politicos, and now worsened by the new ones or fresh faces are seen as merely publicity hungry,leading the call to oust Mrs. Arroyo as a means to advance in their political career come elections in 2010.

As some say, who doesn’t want to be President? But these proponents for radical change are, well, their means to kick out this government at this time is not completely inspiring or credible at all … for now (or maybe never)

The lack of a palatable and acceptable leadership, who won’t become corrupt once it is in power is another compounding matter that won’t entice the public to go to the streets again.

The other element that pushed for the Marcos and Estrada ouster was the participation of the military who at this particular point is committed to Mrs. Arroyo.

It won’t take junior officers to make the military as a whole swing to favor an un-Constitutional act to remove Mrs. Arroyo.

It is the military’s senior leadership who can make the situation different and unfavorable for the President. This scenario and the military supporting the civilian call to defy & remove this administration will be the only real event to effect another political upheaval, but this scenario is far from happening at this stage.

For that matter, the time is not ripe for change, it is far from happening at this point.

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